Time for New Predictions

Well, the current round of political betting has ended and a new one will need to occur. This new round will then focus on, what will Stephen Harper do as PM, and how long will he last as PM in this session.

Let's start with the second. As most others have noted, he will likely have at least 6-8 months as the Liberals try to reform, regroup and find new leadership. Along this lines I would not think that many Canadians would be all that keen on a new Liberal leader attempting to bring down the government as one of their first acts. Thus, I will extent Harper's timelines until at least the 12 month point, probably 14 months.

With Harper lasting that long, I expect a number of promises to have to be kept. And budgetary ones I would think would best be done befoer the Liberals choose a new leader. Thus, by summer, the GST will begin its drop (at least legislatively - maybe kick in around the January '07). I would not be surprised to see the child care tax credit rolled in there as well. I also expect Harper's Native deal, based on programs that the Liberals have killed will also come about during this first year and maybe by summer. Military spending improvements, that will wait until the budget after the Liberal leadership race has been completed.

That's the start...let's see what Stevie H. does.